{"id":2783,"date":"2020-05-18T02:50:29","date_gmt":"2020-05-18T01:50:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/?page_id=2783"},"modified":"2020-05-18T02:50:29","modified_gmt":"2020-05-18T01:50:29","slug":"monitorando-a-mortalidade-ao-longo-do-tempo-atualizacao-em-12-de-maio","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/monitorando-a-mortalidade-ao-longo-do-tempo-atualizacao-em-12-de-maio\/","title":{"rendered":"Monitorando a mortalidade ao longo do tempo \u2013 Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o em 12 de maio"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Tradutores:\u00a0Ana Paula Pires dos Santos, Ana Luiza Cabrera Martimbianco<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12 de maio de 2020<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jason Oke, Nick DeVito, Carl Heneghan.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>N\u00f3s estamos monitorando os dados do ONS (\u201cOffice for National Statistics\u201d \u2013 Gabinete de Estat\u00edsticas Nacionais) sobre <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/birthsdeathsandmarriages\/deaths\/datasets\/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales\">mortes<\/a><\/em><em>, que s\u00e3o atualizados toda ter\u00e7a-feira.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Como podemos saber se a COVID-19 \u00e9 a principal causa dessas mortes? Ou se elas teriam ocorrido na aus\u00eancia da COVID-19, particularmente em idosos e pessoas com problemas cr\u00f4nicos de sa\u00fade? (veja o \u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/wintoncentre\/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196\">artigo<\/a> de David Spiegelhalter para uma explica\u00e7\u00e3o).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Uma maneira \u00e9 examinar as taxas de mortalidade e determinar se h\u00e1 mais pessoas morrendo do que se esperaria. O que queremos saber \u00e9 se as mortes relatadas pela COVID representam um &#8220;excesso&#8221; em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 norma.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>O n\u00famero semanal de mortes registradas para todas as idades.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2784\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img001.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"638\" height=\"495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img001.jpg 638w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img001-300x233.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 638px) 100vw, 638px\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o:<\/strong> a divulga\u00e7\u00e3o dos dados de hoje refere-se \u00e0 semana que terminou no dia 01 de maio (semana 18)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Houve 17.953 mortes registradas na semana 18 na Inglaterra e no Pa\u00eds de Gales.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Isto \u00e9 8.012 (81%) a mais do que se esperaria para esta \u00e9poca do ano (a m\u00e9dia de 5 anos para esta semana \u00e9 de 9.941). Dessas mortes em excesso, 6.035 (75%) mencionaram COVID no atestado de \u00f3bito e 1.977 (25%) n\u00e3o mencionaram.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nas primeiras 18 semanas de 2020, houve 247.261 mortes. Isto \u00e9 41.672 (20%) a mais do que o esperado (a m\u00e9dia de 5 anos at\u00e9 a semana 18 \u00e9 de 205.589 mortes). Dessas mortes em excesso, 33.365 (80%) mencionam a COVID no atestado de \u00f3bito.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At\u00e9 a semana 18 j\u00e1 ocorreram 35.044 mortes com men\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 COVID no atestado de \u00f3bito. Este n\u00famero \u00e9 maior que os registros da semana 18, pois inclui alguns \u00f3bitos registrados na semana 19 que ocorreram na semana 18.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Desde a semana 13, houve um excesso de 45.483 \u00f3bitos observados em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao esperado para essas semanas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2785\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img002.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"645\" height=\"495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img002.jpg 645w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img002-300x230.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">O n\u00famero de mortes excedeu 3 DPs (desvios-padr\u00e3o) em cinco ocasi\u00f5es distintas nos \u00faltimos tr\u00eas anos. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/birthsdeathsandmarriages\/deaths\/bulletins\/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales\/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final\">No per\u00edodo entre o inverno de 2017 e o de 2018<\/a>, houve 50.100 mortes em excesso na Inglaterra e no Pa\u00eds de Gales. O maior n\u00famero de mortes j\u00e1 registrado (do qual temos conhecimento) por semana <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/birthsdeathsandmarriages\/deaths\/bulletins\/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales\/2016to2017provisionaland2015to2016final\">ocorreu na semana 52 de 1999<\/a>, quando foram registradas 18.500 mortes naquela semana.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>O pico de mortes<\/strong> \u00e9 consistente com o pico de mortes do NHS Inglaterra &#8211; 8 de abril.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2786\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img003.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"645\" height=\"429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img003.jpg 645w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img003-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px\" \/>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>N\u00famero cumulativo de mortes de acordo com diferentes fontes de dados<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2787\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img004.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img004.jpg 640w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img004-300x199.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Idade das mortes<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>73% de todas as mortes ocorreram em &gt;75 anos<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2788\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img005.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"645\" height=\"464\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img005.jpg 645w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img005-300x216.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Gr\u00e1ficos interativos\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/ebmdatalab.github.io\/mortality_tracking-covid-notebook\/\">de mortalidade por idade or 100.000 pessoas <\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Taxas de mortalidade por idade da popula\u00e7\u00e3o sob risco (h\u00e1 menos pessoas de 85 anos do que aqueles na faixa et\u00e1ria de 45 a 64 anos). O que isto mostra \u00e9 o risco muito maior nos idosos em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com as faixas et\u00e1rias mais jovens.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2789\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img006.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"648\" height=\"348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img006.jpg 648w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img006-300x161.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Mortalidade por idade por 100.000 pessoas<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>&gt;85: 155\/100.000<\/li>\n<li>75-84: 43 por 100.000<\/li>\n<li>65-74: 2,3 por 100.000<\/li>\n<li>45-64: 0,15 por 100.000<\/li>\n<li>15-44: 0,02 por 100.000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">O relat\u00f3rio do ONS n\u00e3o nos diz se a COVID foi mencionada como a doen\u00e7a ou condi\u00e7\u00e3o que levou diretamente \u00e0 morte.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>A causa imediata da morte &#8211; (primeira linha do atestado de \u00f3bito na Parte I)<\/li>\n<li>As causas subjacentes da morte &#8211; consideram a cadeia de eventos que levam \u00e0 morte (linhas mais inferiores na Parte I)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Todas as mortes por doen\u00e7as respirat\u00f3rias (CID-10 J00-J99)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Isto inclui mortes por pneumonia viral (codificadas como J12).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2790\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img007.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"357\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img007.jpg 640w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img007-300x167.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Esperar\u00edamos que a pneumonia estivesse em ascens\u00e3o se o SARS-CoV-2 causasse predominantemente pneumonia viral. Um atestado de \u00f3bito conteria tanto COVID quanto pneumonia viral, se este fosse o caso. A causa predominante de morte por COVID n\u00e3o \u00e9 respirat\u00f3ria. Uma an\u00e1lise mais profunda dos dados do ONS pode revelar as outras causas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Gr\u00e1ficos interativos dispon\u00edveis <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/ebmdatalab.github.io\/mortality_tracking-covid-notebook\/\">aqui<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Local de morte<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2791\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img008.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"676\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img008.jpg 676w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img008-300x166.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2792\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img009.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img009.jpg 665w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img009-300x165.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 665px) 100vw, 665px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2793\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img010.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"662\" height=\"345\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img010.jpg 662w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img010-300x156.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 662px) 100vw, 662px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As mortes por COVID no domic\u00edlio permanecem muito baixas enquanto as mortes N\u00e3o-COVID s\u00e3o mais elevadas do que normalmente deveriam ser (compare o n\u00famero do dia 13 de mar\u00e7o com o desta semana). As mortes domiciliares n\u00e3o-COVID tamb\u00e9m permanecem mais altas do que deveriam ser, enquanto as mortes hospitalares n\u00e3o-COVID s\u00e3o muito mais baixas (3.183, semana 11 vs. 4.970, semana 18).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Local de ocorr\u00eancia por dia<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2794\" src=\"http:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img011.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img011.jpg 640w, https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/30_img011-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Veja tamb\u00e9m<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cebm.net\/covid-19\/covid-19-tracking-european-mortality\/\">COVID-19 \u2013\u00a0Monitorando a mortalidade na Europa<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>AUTORES<\/strong><br \/>\nJason Oke is \u00e9 um estat\u00edstico senior no Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.phc.ox.ac.uk\/team\/jason-oke\">Biografia<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">NickDeVito \u00e9 um Doutorando no EBM DataLab (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.phc.ox.ac.uk\/team\/nicholas-devito\">Biografia<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.phc.ox.ac.uk\/team\/carl-heneghan\">Carl Heneghan<\/a><\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>\u00e9 professor de Medicina Baseada em Evid\u00eancia, diretor do\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cebm.net\/\">Centro de Medicina Baseada em Evid\u00eancia<\/a>. (Biografia completa e declara\u00e7\u00e3o de conflitos de interesse <a href=\"https:\/\/www.phc.ox.ac.uk\/team\/carl-heneghan\">aqui<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Aviso:<\/strong> o artigo n\u00e3o foi revisado por pares; ele n\u00e3o deve substituir o julgamento cl\u00ednico individual e as fontes citadas devem ser verificadas. As opini\u00f5es expressas neste coment\u00e1rio representam as opini\u00f5es dos autores e n\u00e3o necessariamente as da institui\u00e7\u00e3o anfitri\u00e3, do NHS, do NIHR, ou do Departamento de Sa\u00fade e Assist\u00eancia Social. Os pontos de vista n\u00e3o s\u00e3o um substituto para o aconselhamento m\u00e9dico profissional.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Tradutores:\u00a0Ana Paula Pires dos Santos, Ana Luiza Cabrera Martimbianco &nbsp; &nbsp; 12 de maio de 2020 Jason Oke, Nick DeVito, Carl Heneghan. N\u00f3s estamos monitorando os dados do ONS (\u201cOffice for National Statistics\u201d \u2013 Gabinete de Estat\u00edsticas Nacionais) sobre mortes, que s\u00e3o atualizados toda ter\u00e7a-feira. Como podemos saber se a COVID-19 \u00e9 a principal causa&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2783","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","description-off"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2783"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2795,"href":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2783\/revisions\/2795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oxfordbrazilebm.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}